By Bayo Onanuga

The Nigerian economy is looking good in some sectors. This is not a harebrained assessment, despite the high inflation and the unstable exchange rate of the Naira. Those who doubt this don’t need to look far, for a reality check. The economic boom is happening at the Nigerian Exchange, where stockholders are not only recording unprecedented capital gains, but are poised to earn equally unprecedented dividends on their investments. The prosperity promised by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu during the campaign is becoming a reality, for millions of Nigerian investors, among whom will be the 6.6 million Nigerian shareholders of MTN, the biggest telco in the country.

The upswing in the market began 30 May 2023, the second day Tinubu was sworn into office. What triggered the big rally in the market was the announcement by the new President  of the end of the fraudulent petrol subsidy regime. The market took notice of this bold measure, along with the President’s promise to harmonise the exchange rate. Although the latter remains ‘work-in-progress’, it has been a bullish run in the market since then.

The All Share Index which tracks the general market movement of all listed equities on the Nigerian exchange was 55,738.35 on 30 May 2023, a day after Tinubu was sworn in. In July it rose to 65,091. By 24 December, it reached 73,768, which as Bloomberg reported on 1 November, when the ASI first crossed the 70,000 mark, was the highest on record.

As at the close of trading on Friday 19 January, the index leapfrogged to 94,538.12, more than 69 percent growth, since last May,  creating yet another huge record.

Market capitalisation also grew exponentially from N30.3 trillion recorded at end  of May 2023   to N51.7 trillion on 19 January 2024. This means investors have gained more than N20 trillion since Tinubu came into office.

The record gains have made the Nigerian Stock Market the best in the world,  outperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets Europe, Middle East and Africa Index.

Not surprising, investors are bringing more and more money to the market. Last Friday alone, 844.4 million units of stocks valued at N15 billion were traded in 15,255 deals.

The phenomenal growth of the market was fuelled by the record profits announced by many Nigerian banks and some of the manufacturers, such as Dangote Cement, Bua Cement, Lafarge Africa, formerly known as WAPCO.

The banks were the first to rally the market into a frenzy, beginning from their second quarter reports, when they reported huge gains from their forex dealings. Zenith announced earnings per share  in H1 at N9.29 from N3.55 in the same period of 2022. UBA’s earnings per share stood at N10.95 in H1 2023 from N1.98 per share in the same period of 2022.

The positive Q3 reports also threw the market into more frenzy as banks announced further increases in profits. Investors, in response lapped up the shares of the banks, sending the prices higher.

UBA Plc which at the beginning of 2023 was trading at about N8 has seen the biggest jump in its stock price. By last Friday, it traded for N32. Access Bank which started the year at about N11-N12, has soared to N29. Zenith and GTCO are now trading in the N40s, from about N24-25 in January 2023. First Bank , FCMB, Fidelity, Sterling, Wema, Stanbic have all experienced the upswing in prices.

Dangote Cement, Bua Cement and Bua Foods, Flour Mills of Nigeria, Okomu Oil, Presco, Transcorp, NAHCO and WAPCO have similarly  experienced some boom. Dangote on Friday, sold for N538, adding N48.9 to its weight, from its previous close of N489.9. WAPCO, otherwise known as Lafarge Africa traded at N31 in December. On 19 January, it traded for N47.

The rise in stock prices is being propelled by investors who are taking positions, according to EDC Securities Research, ‘in fundamentally driven stocks as we approach the earnings season”.   The expectations and sentiments out there among the investors are that some  dividend windfall is on the way.

The prosperity promised by the Tinubu administration may not be felt by all our 200 million people simultaneously. But it will not be far away as the government confronts the low inflow of forex into the economy, the fundamental reason exchange rate has gone bonkers and prices of imported and locally produced  goods have increased. President Tinubu and his cabinet expressed concern about  the rising costs of pharmaceutical products at the last Federal Executive Council meeting. His government is poised to implement a series of measures to assist local drug manufacturers so that they lower the costs.

To address the low forex inflow, Nigeria is discussing as much as $1.5 billion of World Bank funding support for the budget, Finance Minister Wale Edun said in a Bloomberg Television interview. The country is also looking forward to the fulfilment of the pledge by Saudi Arabia to invest billions of dollars in our economy. NNPC Limited in the coming weeks will continue to be under pressure to bring in more dollars into the country’s foreign reserve to boost dollar availability and overturn bleak predictions for the national currency in 2024.

*Onanuga is the special adviser Information and Strategy to President Bola Tinubu.

TRUMP WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY AS REMATCH WITH BIDEN APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY

Former President Donald Trump easily won New Hampshire’s primary on Tuesday, seizing command of the race for the Republican nomination and making a November rematch against President Joe Biden feel all the more inevitable.

The result was a setback for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who finished second despite investing significant time and financial resources in a state famous for its independent streak. She’s the last major challenger after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ended his presidential bid over the weekend, allowing her to campaign as the sole alternative to Trump.

Trump’s allies ramped up pressure on Haley to leave the race before the polls had closed, but Haley vowed after the results were announced to continue her campaign.

Speaking to supporters, she intensified her criticism of the former president, questioning his mental acuity and pitching herself as a unifying candidate who would usher in generational change.

“This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go,” Haley said, while some in the crowd cried, “It’s not over!”

Trump, meanwhile, can now boast of being the first Republican presidential candidate to win open races in Iowa and New Hampshire since both states began leading the election calendar in 1976, a striking sign of how rapidly Republicans have rallied around him to make him their nominee for the third consecutive time.

At his victory party Tuesday night, Trump repeatedly insulted Haley and gave a far angrier speech than after his Iowa victory, when his message was one of Republican unity.

“Let’s not have someone take a victory when she had a very bad night,” Trump said. He added, “Just a little note to Nikki: She’s not going to win.”

With easy wins in both early states, Trump is demonstrating an ability to unite the GOP’s factions firmly behind him. He’s garnered support from the evangelical conservatives who are influential in Iowa and New Hampshire’s more moderate voters, strength he hopes to replicate during the general election.

Trump posted especially strong results in the state’s most conservative areas, while Haley won more liberal parts. The only areas in which Haley was leading Trump were in Democratic-leaning cities and towns such as Concord, Keene and Portsmouth.

Pat Sheridan, a 63-year-old engineer from Hampton, voted for Trump “because he did a really good job the first time.”

“We need a businessman, not bureaucrats,” Sheridan said.

About half of GOP primary voters said they are very or somewhat concerned that Trump is too extreme to win the general election. Only about one-third say the same about Haley.

Still, Haley’s path to becoming the GOP standard-bearer is narrowing quickly. She won’t compete in a contest that awards delegates until South Carolina’s Feb. 24 primary, bypassing the Feb. 8 Nevada caucuses that are widely seen as favoring Trump.

As South Carolina’s former governor, Haley is hoping a strong showing there could propel her into the March 5 Super Tuesday contests. But in a deeply conservative state where Trump is exceedingly popular, those ambitions may be tough to realize and a home-state loss could prove politically devastating.

“This is just the beginning; we’ve got the rest of the nation,” said Sandy Adams, 66, an independent from Bow who supported Haley. “I think we’ve got a strong candidate, and the first time we have just two candidates, and that’s a great thing.”

On the Democratic side, Biden won his party’s primary but had to do so via a write-in effort. The Democratic National Committee voted to start its primary next month in South Carolina, but New Hampshire pushed ahead with its own contest. Biden didn’t campaign or appear on the ballot but topped a series of little-known challengers.

Trump’s early sweep through the Republican primary is remarkable considering he faces 91 criminal charges related to everything from seeking to overturn the 2020 presidential election to mishandling classified documents and arranging payoffs to a porn actress. He left the White House in 2021 in the grim aftermath of an insurrection at the U.S. Capitol led by his supporters who sought to stop the certification of Biden’s win. And Trump was the first president to be impeached twice.

Beyond the political vulnerabilities associated with the criminal cases, Trump faces a logistical challenge in balancing trials and campaigning. He has frequently appeared voluntarily at a New York courtroom where a jury is considering whether he should pay additional damages to a columnist who last year won a $5 million jury award against Trump for sex abuse and defamation. He has turned these appearances into campaign events, holding televised news conferences that give him an opportunity to spread his message to a large audience.

But Trump has turned those vulnerabilities into an advantage among GOP voters. He has argued that the criminal prosecutions reflect a politicized Justice Department, though there’s no evidence that officials there were pressured by Biden or anyone else in the White House to file charges.

Trump has also repeatedly told his supporters that he’s being prosecuted on their behalf, an argument that appears to have further strengthened his bond with the GOP base.

As Trump begins to pivot his attention to Biden and a general election campaign, the question is whether the former president’s framing of the legal cases will persuade voters beyond the GOP base. Trump lost the popular vote in the 2016 and 2020 elections and has faced particular struggles in suburban communities from Georgia to Pennsylvania to Arizona that could prove decisive in the fall campaign.

Trump traveled frequently to New Hampshire in the months leading up to the primary but didn’t spend as much time in the state as many of his rivals. Rather than the traditional approach of greeting voters personally or in small groups, Trump has staged large rallies. He has spent much of his time complaining about the past — including the lie that the 2020 election was stolen due to widespread voter fraud.

If he returns to the White House, the former president has promised to enact a hardline immigration agenda that includes stopping migrants from crossing the U.S.-Mexico border and reimposing his first-term travel ban that originally targeted seven Muslim-majority countries. He’s also said the rising number of immigrants entering the United States are “poisoning the blood of our country,” echoing Adolf Hitler’s language.

Biden faces his own challenges. There are widespread concerns about his age at 81 years old. Dissent is also building within his party over Biden’s alliance with Israel in its war against Hamas, putting the president’s standing at risk in swing states like Michigan. A rally he held in northern Virginia on Tuesday to promote abortion rights — an issue his party sees as critical to success in November — was disrupted repeatedly by protests over U.S. military support for Israel. One person shouted “shame on you!”

But he avoided potential embarrassment in New Hampshire even as rivals like Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips compared him in advertising to Bigfoot — since both were hard to find.

Durwood Sargent, 79, of Bow, cast a write-in vote for Biden and said he wasn’t offended that the president kept his name off the ballot.

“It’s not a big deal. They’ve made a big deal out of it. The president’s got a country to run,” he said.